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Sri Lanka Projects -> Asia Climate Digest -> January 2004 A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia Updated January 2004 Highlights While near normal conditions persisted from October to December in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, anomalous warm pools persisted in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean, in the oceans around Japan and in the Central tropical Indian Ocean. All of this contributed to both deficit and above normal large-scale anomalies of precipitation across South and South-East Asia. There was anomalously heavy precipitation across South-East China, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and in the Eastern Indian states of Bihar and West Bengal and in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Southern Kazakhstan. Floods and Landslides are being reported from these regions. Rainfall deficits were observed over Maldives, Sri Lanka, Northern Laos and Thailand and parts of Southern China and in North-Western Iran. Deaths from a cold wave are reported across the region at the northern littoral of the Bay of Bengal in the last week of December. However, near normal temperatures were reported at a monthly scale. Seasonal climate predictions issued in January point to a tendency towards a warmer climate in most of South-East and South Asia from February to July. A tendency towards cold anomalies is predicted for Mongolia from February to April. A tendency towards above-normal precipitation is predicted over Uzbekistan, Western Afghanistan and over Taiwan. A tendency towards precipitation deficits is predicted over South and South-East Asian regions of Philliphines, Thailand, Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Indian states of West Bengal, North-East States, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The impacts of precipitation deficits in Sri Lanka during the last season are likely to be compounded during the upcoming season. See IRI ENSO Update for details and latest information Table of Contents
Hazards
China China's Shaanxi province continued to experience abundant rainfall during October (October CID Report). The rain and subsequent landslides and flooding caused more than 200,000 homes to collapse and damaged at least 520,000 homes. Most of the affected homes were hillside cave dwellings in the Wei River valley. Approximately 2.5 million people have been affected by the collapses and 23 people were reportedly killed. Unconfirmed reports indicate that 123 people have died or are missing in the Wei River valley since the heavy rains began in August. Recent flooding along the river was the worst the area had seen in 20 years and forced the evacuation of 300,000 people. The Ministry of Civil Affairs has promised US$7.3 millon for relief and local authorities have also allocated relief funds. According to government reports, severe rain and flooding has killed 1911 people and left 6.3 million people homeless during 2003. Rain and flooding impacts are expected to subside as much of China has reached the end of its climatological rainy season. (AFP, Xinhua) Thailand,Vietnam Heavy rains during most of October caused severe flooding in six provinces in Vietnam. The flood waters killed more than 100 people, affected another 630,000 people and caused an estimated US$17 million in damage to agriculture and infrastructure. Most of the agricultural losses were seen in the destruction of tens of thousands of hectares of crops and 25 tons of lost rice seed. Rainfall in some of the mountainous areas in the central, coastal province of Binh Dinh reached 1000 mm (40 in) where 15,000 people were left without food or clean drinking water. The provinces of Quang Tri, Thau Thien Hue, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, and Phu Yen were also affected by the flooding. Water levels approached those seen in the 1999 floods, which caused 800 deaths. Flood preparation by the Vietnamese Red Cross has received some of the credit for the smaller death toll and damage assessment of this event. (OCHA, IFRC, OCHA, Government of Vietnam, ReliefWeb Map, OCHA) Indonesia Flash flooding along the Bahorok River in the Langkat district of North Sumatra devastated the resort
town of Bahorok. The official death toll from the floods is 165, and 76 people were still missing as of 2 December. Approximately 1400 people were displaced in the villages of Bukit Lawang, Timbang Lawan, and Sampe Raya. Over 400 houses, 280 kiosks, and eight bridges were destroyed by the flood waters. At least four other rivers in the area burst their banks as well. Vietnam After experiencing devastating floods in mid-October (November CID Report), central Vietnam was hit again by heavy rainfall and flooding in mid-November. The provinces of Binh Thuan, Ninh Thuan, Khanh Hoa, Phu Yen, Binh Dinh, Quang Ngai and Quang Nam were among those worst affected. The two rounds of flooding and landslides, said to be the worst since 1964, caused an estimated US$35 million in damage, affected 340,000 people and killed 103 people. Approximately two-thirds of these losses were caused by the November event. (IFRC, UNICEF, OCHA, DFO) December 2003Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines Abundant rainfall across the Maritime Continent brought flooding and landslides to Indonesia,
Malaysia, and the Philippines. Weeks of heavy rains in Sumatra and part of Sulawesi, in
Indonesia, caused flooding that left approximately 25,000 people homeless and displaced another 350,000 people. Over 75,000 hectares of plantation and agricultural land
were submerged. Flooding along the Batanghari River caused the worst flooding
in the province of Jambi since 1955. The province of Riau in Sumatra was
also greatly affected. (DFO, DPA, IFRC, IFRC, OCHA)
Kyrgyzstan The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has provided an emergency loan of US$ 5 million to the Republic of Krygyzstan to fund several infrastructure repair projects after the heavy precipitation (Mar-May 2003 WASP index) and numerous landslides which affected areas of southern Kyrgyzstan in the spring and summer of 2003. The provinces of Jalal-Abad and Osh suffered the most damage. Forty-three people were killed, 1,088 families lost their homes, 6,000 hectares of agricultural land was damaged, and over 300,000 people were affected. The total estimated damage was about US$ 13.5 million. According to local civil defense officials, much of the damage might have been avoided if unauthorized construction in vulnerable areas had been prevented. The government of Kyrgyzstan will also supply US$ 1.3 million to fund infrastructure projects. (ADB, IRIN, IRIN) Agriculture
China Several months of above-normal rainfall (percent of median rainfall, Aug-Oct 2003) and flooding (DFO) in the Yellow River basin of China has resulted in losses for this year's cotton crop, especially in the provinces of Henan, Shandong, and Hebei. According to the USDA, heavy rainfall began as cotton bolls were opening and as the harvest began. Problems associated with the heavy rainfall included low boll counts, boll shedding, wilting, late development, increased pest and disease occurrence, and low cotton quality. Yields were down 10 to 50 percent from last year in many cotton-growing areas, and the USDA predicts that production will be down 3 percent from last year, with a total production of about 22.0 million bales. Health
India Heavy rains in the eastern Indian state of Bihar have resulted in waterborne diseases, including a diarrhea epidemic, that has claimed the lives of 9 people and left many more ill. More than 200 have died in the recent floods in Bihar. In Karnataka, southern India, there has been an increase in dengue cases this year, with nearly 1000 cases and 7 deaths; 197 cases were reported in the last month, likely due to the monsoon rains. (ProMED, ProMED) December 2003Bangladesh,Burma,India A cold wave in Bangladesh, Burma, and northern India killed 574 people in the last week of December and first week of January. Most victims were homeless and died due to exposure, though deaths due to pneumonia, bronchitis, and asthma also increased during the cold wave. The northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for over two-thirds of the death toll, has been hit the hardest. The government distributed blankets and offered night shelters as temperatures dipped to 2-6°C (35-43°F). Thick fog, which accompanied the cold, caused problems for railways in Uttar Pradesh as well, as some trains were delayed by up to 20 hours. (Reuters, Hindu, WFP) Climate Summary
Precipitation
Oceanic Conditions
Precipitation Map, Temperature Map. Precipitation forecast
Temperature forecast
Compiled by Lareef Zubair and Jia Fang in consultation with the Climate Digest Team, based on material in IRI Climate Digest and IRI Map Room, and forecasts produced by IRI . Feedback: is welcome as to shortcomings and request for additional material. Send e-mail to
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