| ..:: Rice |
..:: Summary |
Rice is the staple food
in Sri Lanka and it is cultivated by farmers on a small-scale in the
rural regions. Rice production is acutely dependent on rainfall. The
principal cultivation season, known as "Maha", is from October
to March. During this season, there is usually enough water to sustain
the cultivation of all rice fields. The subsidiary cultivation season,
known as "Yala", is from April to September. Usually there
is only enough water for cultivating half the land extent.
There has been a steady
increase in rice production in Sri Lanka from 1940 to 1990. This rise
has been attributed to increased area under cultivation, increased irrigation,
improved seed varieties, increased fertilizer application and higher
purchase prices for rice. However, rainfall variations affects the inter-annual
variability of rice production as distinguished from its long-term trends.
El Niño and La Niña are states of unusual warm and cool
tropical eastern Pacific ocean surfaces respectively.
Two decades ago, it was
discovered that the rainfall of Sri Lanka is affected by ENSO. Our work
has confirmed that link and also uncovered a link between ENSO, rainfall
and the production of rice. This provides a basis for using ENSO based
predictions for agricultural policy formulation and management.
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During
the last 45 years, the Maha rainfall and rice production has dropped 10
out of the 15 years with El Niño and in 7 out of the 10 years with
La Niña conditions. During the same period, the Yala rainfall and
rice production have dropped in 8 and 10 years respectively out of 14
with El Niño and 6 years out of 8 with La Niña.
Tea in Sri Lanka
derives its distinctive flavours and reputation for quality from its particular
regional and seasonal climatic history. Climatic anomalies thus have a
direct bearing on tea. Over a million people depend on plantations for
their livelihoods in Sri Lanka. Any decline in production or quality will
have a direct impact on both livelihoods and on the economy. Tea and rubber
accounted for 50% of national exports in 1986 – a fraction that
has since declined to about 20%.
Coconut is a perennial
crop which has a prolonged reproductive phase of 44 months. Weather and
climate affects all stages of the long development cycle extending to
44 months and thus there is likely to be extended predictability based
on climate variability.
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| ..::
Coconut Project Progress - |
Work
on quality control, climatological analysis and climate changes assessments
are reported elsewhere here. We have published two journal and two conference
papers. We have also written four technical reports. Articles have been
published in several newspapers, magazines and internet. We have presented
our work at Universities, CRI, TRI and the Mahaweli Authority.
Dr. Sarath Peiris visited the International
Research Institute for climate prediction for three weeks and Dr. Neil
Fernando for a week. Dr. Peiris’s visit there led to a research
paper on crop-climate interaction in collaboration with Dr. James Hansen.
Dr. Neil Fernando visit led to a draft on the valuation of climate impacts. |
| ..::
Prediction of Annual National Coconut Production based on Climate - |
|
Accurate forecasting of Annual National
Coconut Production (ANCP) is important for national agricultural planning
and negotiating forward contracts with foreign buyers. Climate and the
long term trends (attributed to “technology”) are major factors
that determine ANCP. The climate effect was estimated by regressing production
data that had been de-trended to remove the “technology effects”
with quarterly rainfall in the year prior to harvest in principal coconut
growing regions which are all in the low-lands. The technology effect
was estimated from the historical log-linear trends. The regression model
that integrates both climate and technology effects developed to predict
ANCP with high fidelity.
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| ..:: Publications |
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- December 2004: Sarath
Peiris, Lareef Zubair and C.H. Piyasiri, Forecasting National Coconut
Production - A Novel Approach, International Sri Lankan Statistical
Conference, Kandy, Sri Lanka, 28 – 30
December 2004.
- February 2002: ENSO
influences on Rice Production in Sri Lanka, International Journal of
Climatology. 22 (2):249-260.
- July 2004: Empowering
the Vulnerable, TIEMPO, 52:3-6, University of East Anglia, UK, Also,
highlighted in SciDev.net as “Communities facing climate change
need local science".
- May 2004: Was the bumper
rice harvest for 2002/03 Maha due to El Nino? Daily Mirror, Sri Lanka.
- Apr 2004: Towards Developing
Weather and Climate Prediction for Sri Lanka, Journal of the Institute
of Engineers, Sri Lanka, XXXVII, 2:53-58.
- September 2003: Saving
Weather Data , TIEMPO, 49:16-22, University of East Anglia, UK.
- May 2002: Development
of Meteorology in Sri Lanka, Journal of the Institution of Engineers,
Sri Lanka.15(2):14-18.
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| ..:: Conference
Papers |
-
November 2004:
Lareef Zubair with Upamala Tennakoon and Manjula Siriwardhana, Climate
Change Assessments for Sri Lanka from Quality Evaluated Data, International
Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Changing
Environment of the Monsoon Region, United Nations University, Colombo,
Sri Lanka.
- December 2002: with
Heli Bulathsinhala, Quality Evaluation of Mean
Historical Temperature Data in Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka Association for
the Advancement of Science, 58th Annual Sessions, University of Colombo,
Colombo, Sri Lanka.
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| ..:: Reports |
- June 2005: Lareef Zubair
(PI), Kusalika Ariyaratne, Irugal Bandara, Heli Bulathsinhala,Janaki
Chandimala, M.R.A. Siraj, Manjula Siriwardhana, Upamala Tennakoon and
Zeenas Yahiya, Current Climate and Climate Change Assessments for Coconut
and Tea Plantations in Sri Lanka, AIACC/FECT report, Submitted to IRI
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