| .:: :: IRI Seasonal
Climate Forecasts for Asia |
Climate Update for Asia
January to April is a dry season over
Southern Peninsula India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. This is the harvest
period of the Maha and Rabi seasons in Sri Lanka and Southern India and
is of immense significance to the 150 million people in this region. The
IRI predictions point to a drier tendency for this period. Yet, this forecast
has been offered during a period where there are no strong sea-surface-temperature
based forcing. Thus there needs to be caution in interpretation. Seasonal
forecasts such as these dont account for "weather" type processes
such as depressions which can offset predictions particularly in a dry
period. Note, that these are forecasts of probability shifts in climate
probability distributions rather categorical predictions for dry conditions.
The IRI predictions for
ENSO or SST anomalies in the Eastern Pacific shows that neutral conditions
are likely to prevail until April at the least.
| .:: :: Rainfall
for Next 3 Months (MJJ) |
.:: :: Temperature
for Next 3 Months (MJJ) |
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial
Pacific are mainly near average and neutral in terms of the ENSO condition.
Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is approximately 95%
likely that neutral conditions will prevail over the Sep-Oct-Nov
>>Click
for larger view (detailed info)
|
